What are the chances of another rate cut this year?

The Reserve Bank has the cash rate in a holding pattern, and several of the big banks have scaled back their predictions of another cash rate cut in 2025. Here’s what it could mean for your home loan.

It looks like the rate cut party may have come to an end – for 2025 at least.

After leaving rates on hold in September, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is taking a wait-and-see approach, taking the time to gauge how the earlier rate cuts in February, May and August are flowing through the economy.

The RBA’s strategy, coupled with a return to higher inflation in October, has seen plenty of economists talk down prospects of further rate cuts this year.

Let’s unpack what’s happening and how your home loan could be impacted.

The big banks push back predictions of rate cuts

There’s a growing view that we’ve seen the last of rate cuts for 2025.

NAB has backtracked on earlier predictions of possible rate cuts in November and February, and now expects the cash rate to stay on hold until May 2026.

The Commonwealth Bank has also shelved expectations of a November rate cut. It says we’re unlikely to see a drop in the cash rate before February next year.

ANZ no longer expects further rate cuts in 2025, instead pointing to February as the “next plausible option”.

Westpac alone is holding the flag for a possible 0.25% rate cut in December (just in time for Christmas – wouldn’t that be good!).

Why wait ‘til 2026?

These forecasts may be a bit of a downer for homeowners hoping to land a lower rate for the festive season.

But here’s the thing.

We’ve seen plenty of action in the mortgage market lately, and it may not be necessary to wait until the New Year to save with a lower home loan rate.

You may be able to make a rate cut of your own a lot sooner.

Lenders cut rates in a competitive market

According to Mozo, September saw several lenders cut their variable rates despite no change to the cash rate that month.

Mozo says the average borrower with a $660,000 loan could save around $100 per month, or $1,195 annually, by switching from a home loan with a rate of 6.10% to one costing 5.85%.

It’s a strong cue to check the rate you’re currently paying.

Especially as Canstar says a competitive rate for owner occupiers right now is 5.25%.

Could you give yourself a rate cut?

If you’ve had your hopes pinned on more rate cuts this year, it could be time for a rethink.

Instead of holding out for the RBA to cut rates again, another possible strategy is to take control of your own home loan rate.

Contact us to find out if you could lower your home loan rate by refinancing.

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